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So the big news has finally come: the Dragon Quest series, the indisputably most popular third party gaming franchise in all of Japan, has chosen a new home. In picking the Nintendo DS for its next iteration, series creator Yuji Horii has monumentally shifted the nation's game development landscape. Sony, widely expected to receive exclusive rights once again next generation, has lost its #1 franchise in Japan. The ramifications to this are enormous (developers far and wide follow the influence of Dragon Quest and will lose confidence in Sony, and consumers in the land of the rising sun have lost one of the primary incentives to buy the expensive PS3 console) -- but we can examine that impact in further detail as time passes and the repercussions become clearer.
For now, let's look at a prediction. Exactly half a year ago, in previous editorial, I made the (then) rather bold and risky prediction that the PS3 would not be getting the Dragon Quest franchise next-gen. Despite heavy skepticism, I was vindicated on that count. I did err in another aspect of my prediction, though -- I judged that the series would transition to Nintendo's competing home console, the Wii, rather than its portable DS. But in all, my prediction was wrong (mea culpa!). Despite this, I'd like to lay out the following case in my defense: while my final conclusion ended up being incorrect, it wasn't due to any flaws in my reasoning. In the end, though, the results I drew from that reasoning ended up being, much to everyone's surprise, too cautious.
Let's take a quick look at the case I laid out for why the PS3 would lose the next entry in the Dragon Quest franchise.
First, I argued that Square Enix, as an independent third party developer, would see far more value in not having an overly dominant first party hardware manufacturer again, as Sony dominated the console landscape last generation. It was to Square Enix's benefit, I stated, to more broadly equalize the power and control between the competing hardware companies, because equalized first parties give greater influence to larger third parties like Square Enix.
This turned out to be true -- Square Enix's goal was to reduce Sony's power and control in the marketplace. After I wrote my editorial, one Square Enix summed it up fairly aptly in stating that the company didn't want Sony to lose too badly, so it needed Square Enix support -- but at the same time, not too much support, because the third party didn't want Sony to win too much, either. This is the position that led to a franchise split. By divvying up its franchises, Square Enix can keep either company from gaining too much dominance.
Second, I opined that series creator Yuji Horii would see no value in putting the game on the PS3 -- it's far too upscale for the supremely mainstream Dragon Quest series, which has never relied upon fancy visuals, high-end physics, or the other sort of perks that come from operating on an enormous budget for an expensive console. Horii would, I argued, retain the simplistic graphical approach the series has long been known for, because the man as a developer would see no sense in creating something tailored to what the PS3 offers.
This, too, turned out to be a pretty accurate surmisation. In fact, in a recent interview, Horii stated that he'd actually like the technological race to "slow down" -- and now it looks like he's backing up those words. I was right that the man didn't care about graphics and wouldn't push them too hard in the next installment -- I just underestimated how little he cared. Good reasoning; I simply didn't go far enough in my conclusion.
Third, I stated the importance of Yuji Horii's long-standing position that the Dragon Quest series should go to the system with the largest active user-base in Japan, as it is a series designed to be accessible and easily obtainable by all Japanese gamers. Whatever system they choose, I said, that's where Horii will put Dragon Quest, so that they don't have to go buy a system just for his game. The PS3, due to numerous hurdles it would face in attaining broad market success, would not be in any position any time soon to be that console, while the Wii would be accepted by consumers much more rapidly.
Well, it's true -- Horii did go for the system with the largest active user-base. I just, again, erred in being a bit too cautious, surprisingly enough. While I knew his long-held motto would keep the game off the PS3, I didn't think Horii would go for a handheld console instead of a home console. But the most popular console is the most popular, regardless of whether it sits on a floor or inside a pocket, and the userbase has spoken. And I did predict that Square Enix would have some huge stuff coming for the DS, but I never really put two and two together here and speculated that it could be something quite *this* big. Mea, as I said, culpa; Horii's even bolder and gutsier than I was willing to be in my predictions. Kudos to him.
I can take some solace in being half right. The PS3 didn't get Dragon Quest IX, as I knew it would not -- and a Nintendo console did (I just picked the wrong one). But there's only so much to be gained in rehashing the past, and after a post mortem on one speculation, it's time to move on to the next: where do we go from here?
In some ways, Dragon Quest IX almost seems like a stopgap measure. Don't get me wrong here -- it's a major, major coup for Nintendo, and a critical blow to Sony. But it seems to me that Horii sees this current, new generation as one of enormous flux and transition, similar to the shift between the SNES/Megadrive era to the PlayStation/Saturn/N64 age. That was a period of indecision, where for a long while it just didn't seem clear where the userbase would go. So Horii held off, and the end result there was significant delays -- a depressing gap in time between the sixth and seventh installments. We find ourselves in such a position again, but I think Horii was simply not willing to wait over six years for the next Dragon Quest... but nor was he willing to be quite so unsubtle a Kingmaker as to create a home console Dragon Quest too early, before too large a userbase had been developed.
Many seem convinced that Dragon Quest X will return the series to the Sony fold -- not so fast. All the reasons I outlined above, and all the arguments I laid out in my initial editorial, will still hold true two or three years from now. The acceptance phase must set in: the Dragon Quest franchise is lost to Sony this generation. The writing is on the wall here, whether it's announcing DQIX on the DS instead of the PS2, whether it's Horii's prime emphasis of the Wii's Dragon Quest Swords game (which looks increasingly like a really major game and got some prime time in the spotlight during the DQIX event), whether it's the announcement of more and more collaboration between Horii and Nintendo (such as the brand new Itadaki Street DS, featuring a crossover between Dragon Quest and Nintendo's Mario franchise).
One can also expect the floodgates to truly open for developers creating new, original RPGs for the DS now. For a while, it's only been Nintendo putting a major focus on the system, while most third parties, with the limited exception of Square Enix, contributed mainly minor side projects. Now that the largest third party franchise and the second largest RPG franchise has migrated to the system, expect it to become almost PS2-like in terms of the shift you'll see in developer support. Where Horii goes, others will follow.
And here's where we are now: a much weakened Sony, a resurgent Nintendo, a handheld that's seemingly possessed of all the power, prestige, and sales popularity of a home console, and an aggressive Microsoft pushing to fight for greater marketshare in each region. One thing is for sure: Interesting times lay ahead.
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