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I have a confession to make: It's nice being right. Really nice, in fact! Being right gives one a certain visceral thrill, a pleasure unmatched (with few exceptions). In fact, being right is such a wonderful experience that I'd go out on a limb and recommend that others try it more often. The surest path toward attaining this satisfying sensation? By listening to me more often. Because I like being right so much that I have, well, made a habbit of it. Let's review, shall we?
I first formulated in March that Square Enix and Nintendo were collaborating together on a new RPG for the Wii console, to be named Dragon Quest Swords. I based this upon the most solid and concrete of logical reasoning -- a trademark was filed in the US bearing that name. Yuji Horii (the creator, executive producer, game designer, and scenario author for the Dragon Quest series) had not only expressed interest in the Wii (then the Revolution) numerous times, but had been featured offering praise for it during Nintendo's unveiling of the console. Increasing closeness between Square Enix and Nintendo would logically culminate in more Square Enix games upon Nintendo consoles, and considering that Square Enix had previously made a non-console game that used a toy peripheral to function in a manner similar to that of the Revolution's remote lead one to the inescapable conclusion that I had drawn.
Despite this solid logic, I was laughed at! No one believed me. That is, of course, until a month and a half later, when at a little event called E3 in May, Square Enix and Nintendo together unveiled just such that game that I had predicted. It was a vindication, if nothing else.
In January, I surmised on RPGamer's very own forums that there was a high probability that Nintendo would make a move to acquire Namco Bandai's Monolith Software studio, the makers of Xenosaga, Namco X Capcom, and Baten Kaitos. After the financial disappointment of Xenosaga, and Namco Bandai's statement that the third episode would be the end for Monolith's highest profile and biggest budgeted series, I theorized that, "Nintendo (which has expressed a desire to see BK remain in existence as a Nintendo-brand RPG franchise across its consoles, and which recognizes the need for more RPGs in general) will then buy out Namco's stake in the company and make Monolith a second party developer." Aside from the deceased Xenosaga, the now Nintendo-owned Baten Kaitos, and the one-out Namco X Capcom, Monolith simply had no other franchises to draw from. I continued, "We'll see if it happens based on whether or not Namco and Monolith announce any new franchises at this point. But I'm betting they won't, which means either Monolith will die or someone else will buy it."
In point of fact, Namco and Monolith have not announced a new franchise -- but Nintendo and Monolith have announced, during E3, a new Nintendo-owned, Nintendo-published, Monolith-developed IP. And while my January prediction has not yet come to its full conclusion (the outright acquisition of Monolith by Nintendo), certainly the theory is still in play. Since the announcement of Monolith's Disaster: Day of Crisis, Nintendo marketing and public relations officials have labeled the company a second party developer. Score two.
And what about my biggest, boldest prediction of all -- that Square Enix's enormous Dragon Quest series would be making its home on the Wii next gen? I predicted that, if Dragon Quest Swords sold well, there was a very, very real chance that Dragon Quest IX would be seeing the Wii as its home, rather than the expected PS3. This turned out to be my most controversial prediction of all, and it set off a firestorm of incredulity and disbelief. Well, this prediction, too, has not yet taken tangible form (nor should one expect it to for at least another year and a half or so), but suddenly it's not looking quite so unreasonable -- now that, a month late to the party, Electronics Gaming Monthly has postulated the exact same thing that I did. Based on the sales of Dragon Quest Swords, EGM said in its latest issue, Square Enix is seriously looking into Dragon Quest IX on Wii exclusivity. Score three.
Other predictions? When Square Enix trademarked Friends of Mana, I called that as an online Wii game thanks to the series' stylistic fit with Nintendo, the online-sounding "friends" aspect (and Square Enix president Yoichi Wada's repeated praise of Wii's online series), and series creator Koichi Ishii's kind words for and general interest in the console. Once again, EGM has come to my rescue. In the same issue where they dropped the DQIX bombshell, EGM says that Square Enix is currently working on a Mana MMO for the Wii. Score four.
And if all that weren't enough, the mid- to long-term predictions I've laid out in my sales data analysis Number Crunching editorials are coming increasingly more true with each passing week. The data and the logical arguments presented based off the data are simply impeccable! Inarguable.
And yet, alas, the doubt persists. But take my word for it, guys -- being right is a blast. And as I continue to formulate and argue new predictions and theories, I'll continue to amass a staggeringly bulls-eye accuracy rating. Those with betting inclinations, now you know where to put your money. Try following along, and you'll see how fun being right can be.
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