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I originally wrote the following at http://www.1up.com/
under the name RawSteelUT.
It is in response to this
article.
I remember it like it was yesterday. Nintendo had just defeated Sega two generations in a row, and had taken on a whole host of other competitors (NEC, 3DO, Phillips). They were on top of the world, and set to continue its domination of the gaming landscape with the Nintendo 64.
The Nintendo 64 had an amazingly successful launch in late 1996, despite only having two titles (though one of which was a phenomenal game). The system sold out on day one. People were looking for one for months on end. Resellers were making a small fortune on the system.
Then the next five years happened. What we saw was the upstart PlayStation console, firing on all cylinders, looking past the traditional gaming market (kids and "nerds"), making the hobby look hip and cool, something to get excited over. The market rejected Nintendo, and Sony ate up most of their marketshare.
Now we look at 2006. Sony is on top of the world, having defeated Nintendo two generations in a row. They've taken on a whole host of competition (Sega, Microsoft, Atari), and plan to continue their dominance of the market with the PlayStation 3.
They'll likely sell out on day one. People will be looking for it for months on end. Resellers will make a small fortune on the system.
Then the next five years will happen. We have a humbled Nintendo and a hungry Microsoft, both looking at the gaming industry from very different angles. Microsoft is aggressively pushing the most amazing online service ever created, a service that is pushed to new limits every day. Nintendo has once again thought up a novel way to play video games. Both are seeking to break out of the traditional gaming markets (kids, and "nerds") and convince the rest of the world that gaming is hip and cool. It may not look likely now, but Sony's in some real trouble if they don't learn from the mistakes Nintendo made in 1996.
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