REBUTTAL TO: Mutable Realms is Lying to You
[Author's note: the following in the opinion of Doug Hill, and is no
way associated with Black Lantern Studios, Inc. or any of their
business partners.]
First, Heath is not really lying, but I believe that his view is
missing a lot of vital points, especially the business points, the
technical points, and the very important gameplay points. There are
many factors here that, if analyzed separately and also together, can
tell you why this decision very well may have been made.
As any producer or game designer who has worked on projects that both
publishers and business partners have invested in can tell you, a
cancellation of this magnitude is no act of cowardice. Games this
massive, where the risks and rewards are huge, are very carefully
monitored. At certain points, those investors expect certain results,
or they won't continue to fund the project. My guess is this is
exactly what happened to Wish. Investors must be happy, and must see
a payoff worthy of their investment (as in not just breaking even) or
they will put their money elsewhere.
One thing I must address, which effects both technical and gameplay
issues, is the fact that 60,000 testers was an acceptable amount of
people. Let's remember that, unlike pretty much all other MMOGs, Wish
is not shard-based. It was designed to be a world where everyone
played together. Now, take 60,000 total people, and estimate that at
peak, as many as 20% may have been online at the same time, and that
very well may be generous. That's 12,000. In a low-end time, maybe
5,000. Maybe. Now, on a game like World of Warcraft, that's ok.
Why? Because there are different servers, and if you don't find
someone to play with on one server, just go to the main menu and find
out which servers have higher traffic.
That wouldn't work with Wish. Their game, being a single server,
depended on enough players being online constantly to keep the game
fresh, while at the same time having enough content that peak times
weren't too crowded. Wish, from the get go, was a logistical
nightmare to pull off. I could easily imagine wandering around in a
world like that, maybe running across a player every 10-15 minutes,
but the chances of that leading to something being minimal. (Kind of
like when I tried Asheron's Call out a few months ago. So sparse..)
Also, the technical side of Wish must've been even more nightmare-ish
than a traditional MMORPG. With everyone in the same world, there is a
lot more interweaving communication going on. With other MMOGs,
divided into nice neatly-arranged shards, the flow of communication
between users and servers can be much more easily managed. Also,
other MMOG servers are likely a lot less taxed due to shared
information and not having to run certain areas unless players enter
them. (Although I'm sure that MMOGs handle empty areas in different
ways.)
I'd say the failures did scare the investors, but more importantly the
success stories scared them more. Here you have World of Warcraft
garnering literally more users than it could handle, over ten times as
many paying customers as it got in a free beta, and the game is a
radically different product. I've seen many MMOGs gather at least
100,000 for testing, such as Guild Wars and, in the past, World of
Warcraft and EverQuest II. There is a real argument that 60,000
testers was NOT enough players for investors to have faith in the
project continuing.
The bottom line is, and I can tell you this as a game designer and
producer, you do not dedicate years of your life to a project you love
and adore just to shut it down because of cold feet. Just look at
their statement: "After careful consideration of all the facts and
analyzing all the data which we have gathered from the Wish Beta 2.0
test." I guarantee you this was a business decision, likely from one
or a combination of technical costs, gameplay issues, and lack of
public interest. The Beta's first week was a test, and it was a test
that failed.
I was interested in Wish, as a gamer, but in retrospect, as someone in
the business, I'm amazed it got as far as it did. I wish those guys
the best in the future, and maybe some day the world will be ready for
a game of that scope.
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